Our View: It Only Takes One

This year, forecasters are predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with a range of eight to 14 named storms brewing up between June 1 and Nov. 30. (An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.) For most people, that prediction probably inspired a shrug. After all, experts make these predictions at the start of every hurricane season.

Actually, it’s probably better to react to the below-normal prediction with a shrug than with a feeling of relief. After all, it only takes one tropical storm or hurricane to ravage an area. Remember the destruction from the blizzard in February? That’s probably on par with the damage the Cape would receive from a moderate tropical storm. Imagine the trees that would come down in a full-throated tropical storm or even a minimal hurricane. Also consider that the blizzard left our region’s trees in a seriously weakened state.

The reason that meteorologists and climatologists issue their annual hurricane predictions each spring is pretty transparent. It’s a chance to remind people — particularly folks who recently moved to coastal communities — that it’s absolutely critical to prepare for emergencies like hurricanes. That means having a family disaster plan, knowing whether your property is in a flood zone, and knowing where you would ride out the storm safely if you had to leave your home. It means having a healthy cache of nonperishable food, water and other emergency supplies, including an adequate supply of your prescription medications. If you’ve got pets, you need to plan for their wellbeing, too. The time to do it is now, before 2026’s first tropical system, Arthur, gets its name. Start by visiting www.Ready.gov.

Here’s something else to consider: when it comes to providing for your own welfare during and after a disaster, it’s best to be self-reliant. Local and state emergency responders will be stretched beyond capacity. And the Federal Emergency Management Agency is in a vastly weakened state, thanks to Trump administration cutbacks. It will largely be up to each of us to care for ourselves and our neighbors.

But lest we sound like Chicken Little, let’s put the risk in perspective. What are the actual chances that a named storm would strike Cape Cod this year?

It would have to be on par with, say, a meteor that weighs as much as an elephant landing in Cape Cod Bay.